Thursday, April 14, 2011
Smelly Urine Does Not Burn
Sunday, April 10, 2011
What Are Some Questions On An Std Survey
Monday, April 4, 2011
Starting Running Changes Period
The second wave of speculative with "commodities" returns to bring raw material prices to record levels. It has created another "bubble" speculative, which inevitably burst, sooner or later.
For now capital flows to "emerging countries", whose sovereign bonds are the stars of the sky global financial, currency flows in addition to that received by the export of any food or energy resource. This circumstance and is bringing problems Brazil, a country that is having trouble maintaining the competitiveness of its currency, the real, essential to protect its powerful industrial sector.
Argentina is benefiting from these circumstances in the short term, but faces serious dangers in the medium. For now, then the economic downturn of 2009 - a product of the global crisis, and the main factor of the electoral defeat of the Baldwin Brothers - began to grow at average rate of 8% maintained since 2003. Whose floor is suffering inflation approaching 20% \u200b\u200bannually, which is wearing away the competitiveness of the peso.
This inflationary process is rooted in three factors: the steady growth in demand fueled by economic recovery, against a production structure that grew very little in the last 20 years. The formation of oligopolistic or monopolistic markets, in many cases dominated by transnational companies and large local groups. And finally, not least, the sustained increase in international prices of food, which gradually moves to the domestic market.
The government has little interest in anti-inflation measures in an election year. It is precisely his comeback in the polls opinion - already noticed before the death of Nestor Kirchner - is based on maintaining consumption and employment, leading to kirchnerismo regain electoral sympathies. And not only that, also decreased the belligerence of social groups, without being bitter enemies K government, he had alienated. The economy is not exclusively explain the social and political processes, but it is an essential variable to consider when analyzing the same.
In the medium term, faces Argentina, primarily, the "pincer movement" that can mean face, with a relatively revalued, a new global economic downturn. While today's China, Germany, India and Brazil are the engines of world capitalism, it is doubtful whether the operation of the system as a whole if the U.S. - China market - and Europe - German market - along with Japan, are not recovered. protectionism and trade wars will be on the agenda. At that stage, Argentina's position is precarious: predominant exporter of commodities - soybeans, primarily - will depend on decisions made by Brazil and China.
The growth path - much less, the distribution of wealth - is not secured by the retention of the soy model, which is currently the backbone of Argentina's economy. Beyond the words, who governs the next 4 years will face the crisis and make decisions in one of two ways. One is to apply the recipe offered by the "pro-establishment" to strengthen the agro-export model based on the reduction of public spending, labor flexibility and more open markets. Solutions already being implemented in Europe, with familiar social and political consequences known as extensive labor and student protests, growth of racism, xenophobia and extreme right.
The other is to define a production model with a trend towards value-added production, generating a process of industrialization based on technology integration in all branches of production, held in the ownership of agricultural income and extraordinary public regulation markets, particularly the energy and finance.